Florida Chamber Foundation Economists Predict Another Year of Positive Economic Growth for the World’s 15th Largest Economy in 2024

The Florida Chamber Foundation unveiled its 2024 economic and demographic predictions during the 2024 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit. The Florida Chamber Foundation team, leading economists, industry experts, and lawmakers shared a glimpse into the opportunities and challenges Florida’s economy and businesses are facing on the road to 2030. The Solution Summit featured a 2024 Florida economic forecast, a national economic outlook, and valuable insight into Florida’s evolving workforce needs, housing trends, population growth, research and development potential, and more.

“Florida leads the nation in several important categories and has become the national model for economic growth,” said Florida Chamber Foundation President & CEO Mark Wilson. “As Florida continues to experience extraordinary economic and population growth, it is essential our job creators continue uniting around the right long-term solutions to secure Florida’s Future.”

Under the leadership of Governor Ron DeSantis, Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, and House Speaker Paul Renner, Florida is creating 1 in every 13 U.S. jobs, is growing by 1,000 people per day, and has the lowest debt per capita of any state.

The Florida Chamber Foundation measures our progress towards growing Florida to the 10^th largest global economy and tracks hundreds of key metrics impacting Florida’s future at www.TheFloridaScorecard.org.

Florida Chamber Foundation 2024 Economic Predictions Include:

• Annual job growth will continue to outpace the nation: Florida’s job growth in 2023 remained an average of 1.1% higher than the national level and has not been slower than the U.S. since 2017. Rapid economic growth in many areas of Florida’s economy, as well as high levels of population growth, fuels the prediction that Florida will remain on top of the country in job growth.
• Florida will continue growing at a faster pace than any other state: Florida’s GDP grew 9.3% over 2023, the fastest rate in the country. This was not only the #1 growth rate in the U.S., but almost double the growth rate of New York. Looking back further, Florida has the fastest growth over the last four years, a long-term trend that we expect to continue in 2024.
• Florida’s economic growth will remain positive but will slow to more sustainable levels: With national economists split on the potential of a national recession in 2024, the Florida Chamber Foundation does not predict that Florida will experience a recession. Florida’s GDP is expected to grow by 7%, higher than the national average.
• There will be small interest rate cuts towards the second half of 2024: The Florida Chamber Foundation expects possible interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, the minor cuts are not anticipated to make a large impact on inflation in Florida, as inflation rates in parts of Florida currently exceed the national average.
• Florida’s housing market will stabilize at a “new normal”: Higher prices and high interest rates in the housing market have led to an increase in inventory (over pandemic lows), and in 2024 the Florida Chamber Foundation expects the active listings to remain high, but not see significant increases – leveling off at a new normal. Similarly, median housing prices are not expected to decline, but will also not see the same rapid spikes as in recent years. The median listing price is predicted to be $415,000-$450,000 and the median rental estimate will be in the range of $1,450 to $1,650.
• Florida will see 100,000 – 150,000 new jobs in 2024: The trend of slowing job growth experienced over the last few months of 2023 will persist this year. Overall job growth for 2024 will be between 1.0% and 1.5%. Slowing growth, or even declines, will be prominent in the Professional Business Services, Financial Activities, and Information industries, while high growth will occur in the Education and Health Services industry.
• Florida will continue to lead the nation in income migration: Most recent income migration figures showed $39.2 billion in net income migration to Florida and the Florida Chamber Foundation expects that figure to continue increasing as people from other states relocate to Florida for economic opportunity, less burdensome regulations, no state income tax, and a better quality and way of life.
• Population growth will slow, and an aging population will contribute to workforce needs: Florida’s population is expected to grow by another 225,000-275,000 net new residents in 2024. This growth, while still positive, is slower than the growth we saw last year. The demographics of Florida’s population are going to shift, as Florida sees higher growth for ages 70+ than in the age range of 20-65. Population declines for those ages 9 and under, ages 25-35 and ages 50-60 are creating further gaps in the talent supply as essential working age populations leave Florida.

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