Floridians’ Outlook on the Economy Hits Highest Level in the Past Two Years

By: Sheridan Meek, Senior Research Economist, Florida Chamber Foundation

TheFloridaScorecard.org stays up to date with Florida’s latest consumer sentiment – an indexed metric that measures Floridians’ outlook on the economy. Consumer sentiment among Floridians was 72.8 in January, an increase of 3.3 points over the month, and 7.5 points over the year. This is the most positive outlook Floridians have had in over 2 years. After 2022 and 2023 having the first and third worst annual averages of the index on record, this new high could mean that 2024 has more positive outlooks on the horizon.

Consumer sentiment is more than just a number – it is an economic health indicator that is closely tied to achieving our Florida 2030 Blueprint goals. The movement of this figure gives insight into how Florida’s residents view the economy – when consumer sentiment increases, Floridians have a more positive view and vice versa. On average, personal consumption expenditures accounts for two thirds of total GDP (the metric used to determine the size of an economy), so growing Florida to a top 10 global economy by 2030 is fueled by consumer spending.

The Florida consumer sentiment index, measured by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, is broken into five sections, measuring individuals’ outlook in the following areas:

1. 1. Personal financial situation now compared to a year ago
   2. Personal financial situation expected one year from now
   3. Expected national economic conditions over the next year
   4. Expected national economic conditions over the next five years
   5. If this is a good time to buy a major household item

How consumers respond in these areas shapes consumer sentiment, telling the story of how Florida’s consumer sentiment is going to grow, or possibly decline, in upcoming months. In January 2024, this story is a positive one. Here’s how Florida’s consumers felt:

• • There has been an improvement in how Floridians view their personal financial situation one year from now. This shift is promising, because when people feel comfortable with their financial situation, they are more likely to spend.
  • The index saw the largest positive jump in Floridians’ opinions on expected national economic conditions over the next year. There was a similarly high improvement in expectations of national economic conditions over the next five years. After a couple of years of recession talks, Floridians are feeling more comfortable with the idea of potential growth in 2024.
  • The opinion on whether it is a good time to buy a major household item was the most positive that it has been in the past year, even further evidence of how positive outlook influences higher personal spending.

As for Florida’s outlook for the next year, the Florida Chamber Foundation forecasts that Florida’s GDP will increase by 7% in 2024, meaning that Florida is not likely to experience a recession – and consumer confidence shows that Floridians are on the same page.

As we begin the second month of the year, this metric will continue to be updated on TheFloridaScorecard.org, helping the business community to keep a pulse on consumer spending as it drives the growth of Florida and their business.