The most recent Florida Chamber statewide poll finds both Donald Trump and Rick Scott leading their Democratic opponents. Trump and Scott each lead their respective opponents by double digits among NPAs and older voters.
The Florida Chamber’s new poll also finds Governor DeSantis retaining strong approval among Floridians, with 55% of Floridian voters holding a favorable view of the Governor.
“The Florida Chamber Political Operations team constantly analyzes ChamberHub, the Florida Chamber’s exclusive voter file, to recognize trends in Florida’s changing electorate,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Mark Wilson. “This new poll shows likely Florida voters are much more confident in Florida than in the nation as we begin the 2024 General Election, which is not surprising considering Florida created 1 in every 11 new jobs nationally over the last year and 1 in 6 new jobs nationally in the month of July alone. This job growth is not accidental – we must continue electing pro-jobs candidates to make sure the right things keep happening in Florida as we grow from the 16th to the 10th largest global economy by 2030.”
Trump and Scott Lead Democratic Opponents in Florida
The Florida Chamber’s poll shows that if the election for President of the United States were held today in Florida, former President Donald Trump would lead Vice President Kamala Harris by a seven-point margin, 52%-45%. Trump’s lead over Harris comes in part from holding a sizable lead among NPA voters in Florida, with 53% of this key demographic in favor of Trump’s election compared to 43% of NPAs who would vote for Vice President Harris.
In the race for US Senate in Florida, the Florida Chamber’s poll finds incumbent Senator Rick Scott starting the general with a significant lead over his Democratic opponent former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott earns the support of 51% of Floridians polled for his re-election bid, compared to 44% support for Mucarsel-Powell. Much like the presidential election, Scott’s lead is built by maintaining strong support from his party with 88% of Republicans in favor of his re-election and 51% of NPA voters compared to 40% for the challenger. Scott also has a strong lead among older voters with 54% supporting him, while 41% support Mucarsel-Powell.
Amendment 3 Continues to Fall Short of 60% Requirement for Passage
The Florida Chamber’s poll also found fewer than 6 out of 10 (59%) Florida voters support legalizing recreational marijuana, the fourth consecutive poll from the Florida Chamber indicating this amendment remains short of the 60% threshold required for passage. The lack of movement in support from Floridians over the past year comes despite more than $75 million being raised to promote this amendment, over $70 million of which has come from Florida’s largest medicinal marijuana provider. This failure to build momentum for the amendment displays that the concerns about Amendment 3 raised by Governor DeSantis and others are resonating with many Floridians.
Policies Enacted by the Biden-Harris Administration Continue to be Unpopular Among Floridians
The Florida Chamber’s poll shows more than half (54%) of Florida voters believe policies enacted by the Biden-Harris administration have made America’s economy worse, whereas only 37% believe their policies have made it better. Additionally, more than half (53%) of NPAs, half (50%) of Hispanics and more than half (56%) of older voters believe the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies have had a negative impact on America’s economy.
Compounding the Biden-Harris administration’s unpopularity, almost 6 out of 10 (59%) of Florida voters disapprove of their handling of the Israeli – Hamas war. More than three-fourths (76%) of Republicans have an unfavorable view of President Biden’s handling of the Israeli – Hamas war, as well as 62% of NPAs and 60% of Hispanics.
Florida Continues to Head in the Right Direction, While the United States is Overwhelmingly Seen as Being on the Wrong Track
Florida voters believe Florida is headed in the right direction by a 47%-45% margin, showing significantly more optimism about Florida’s trajectory than that of the nation. By a 2-to-1 margin of 60%-30% Floridians believe the United States is currently on the wrong track.
Florida Likely Voters Believe:
Top Issues Facing Florida
- Property Insurance – 16%
- Illegal Immigration – 12%
- Job Creation & the Economy – 12%
- Abortion Issues – 9%
Top Issues by Demographic
- Female Voters’ Top Issue is Jobs & the Economy
- Male Voters’ Top Issue is Property Insurance
- Democrats’ Top Issue is Abortion
- Republicans’ Top Issue is Illegal Immigration
- NPAs’ Top Issue is Property Insurance
- Older Voters’ Top Issue is Illegal Immigration
- Voters Under 40’s Top Issue is Affordable Housing
- White Voters’ Top Issue is Property Insurance
- Black Voters’ Top Issue is Jobs & the Economy
- Hispanic Voters’ Top Issue is Property Insurance
Republicans Continue to Dominate Voter Registration in Florida
Republicans continued to expand their registration lead over Democrats since the last publicly released Florida Chamber poll. The Republican voter registration lead across Florida stood on the precipice of eclipsing 1 million voters at the end of July, a mark almost certainly reached over the last 30 days. This lead comes even though Democrats held an outright voter registration advantage as recently as October 2021.
As of the most recent statewide update from the Florida Division of Elections, Republicans held a statewide advantage of 996,074 active voters over Democrats. As of July 31, 2024, Florida had 5,325,279 registered Republicans compared to 4,329,205 registered Democrats and 3,913,071 registered as NPAs or members of minor parties. This gives Republicans a lead of more than 7% of all registered voters over Democrats in Florida.
Florida Chamber Voter Education and Recruiting Initiatives
With all 120 House seats and half of Florida Senate seats on the 2024 ballot, the Florida Chamber leads the business community’s efforts to recruit and elect better candidates through the Florida Free Enterprise Fund, Florida Chamber Political Institute and the Florida Institute for Political Leadership. For more information about these initiatives, contact the Florida Chamber’s Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations Frank Walker at fwalker@flchamber.com.
ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on August 15-26, 2024, by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 217 Democrats, 254 Republicans and 129 Others for a total of 600 respondents statewide.