New Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Donald Trump & Rick Scott Closing the 2024 General Election Campaign in Florida Leading Their Democratic Opponents, While Governor Ron DeSantis Remains Popular with Floridians

With more than 2 million Floridians having already voted, the most recent Florida Chamber statewide poll finds both Donald Trump and Rick Scott leading their Democratic opponents with just two weeks to go until the 2024 general election. Trump and Scott each lead their respective opponents by double digits among Hispanics and NPAs.

The Florida Chamber’s new poll also finds Governor DeSantis retaining strong approval among Floridians and Floridians remaining optimistic about the direction of the state.

“With more than 2 million Floridians having already cast their ballots and less than two weeks until Election Day, Florida voters remain bullish on Florida’s statewide leaders and the direction of our state,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Mark Wilson. “The Florida Chamber’s political operations team is actively working to ensure the right candidates and causes prevail at the ballot box by uniting the business community behind their campaigns. Florida’s continued economic momentum depends on supporters of free enterprise making their voices heard on November 5^th.”

Trump and Scott Lead Democratic Opponents in Florida; Enjoy Strong NPA/Hispanic Support

The Florida Chamber’s poll shows that if the election for President of the United States were held today in Florida, former President Donald Trump would defeat Vice President Kamala Harris by a six-point margin, 51%-45%. Trump’s lead over Harris comes in part from holding a sizable lead among NPA voters in Florida, with 52% of this key demographic in favor of Trump’s election compared to 42% of NPAs who would vote for Vice President Harris. Among Hispanics, Trump holds an equally impressive lead, with 55% support for Trump compared to 44% for Harris.

Throughout the fall, polling at both the national and state levels have shown a sharply widening gender gap between the two Presidential candidates, and this is also reflected in the Florida Chamber’s poll. Among men in Florida, Trump leads by a commanding 20 points, 58%-38%, while Harris holds a seven-point lead with women in Florida, 52%-45%. This net 27% difference by gender is nearly triple what previous elections have seen in terms of this gender gap.

In the race for US Senate in Florida, the Florida Chamber’s poll finds incumbent Senator Rick Scott with a five-point lead over his Democratic opponent, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott earns the support of 51% of Floridians polled for his re-election bid, compared to 46% support for Mucarsel-Powell. Much like in the presidential election, Scott’s lead is built by maintaining strong support from Hispanic voters, as 56% support his re-election compared to 39% who would vote for Mucarsel-Powell. Scott also enjoys support from 50% of NPA voters compared to 44% for his challenger and among older voters, with 52% of this group supporting him while 45% support Mucarsel-Powell.

DeSantis Job Approval Remains High in Midst of Hurricane Recovery Efforts

Floridians continue to show strong support overall for the job Governor DeSantis has done in office, with 57% of Florida voters holding a favorable view of the Governor. Governor DeSantis receives particularly high marks from Floridians on his administration’s response to the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton, with more than three-fourths (76%) of Florida voters approving of how DeSantis and his team have handled the recovery efforts.

Amendment 3 Continues to Fall Short of 60% Requirement for Passage

The Florida Chamber’s poll also found that fewer than 6 out of 10 (57%) Florida voters support legalizing recreational marijuana, the fifth consecutive poll from the Florida Chamber indicating that this amendment remains short of the 60% threshold required for passage.  The lack of movement in support from Floridians over the past year comes despite $111 million being raised to promote this amendment, over $102 million of which has come from Florida’s largest medicinal marijuana provider. This failure to build momentum for the amendment in polling displays that the more voters learn about Amendment 3, the less they like what they learn. Passage or failure will come down to turnout.

Policies Enacted by the Biden-Harris Administration Continue to be Unpopular Among Floridians

The Florida Chamber’s poll shows more than half (54%) of Florida voters believe policies enacted by the Biden-Harris administration have made America’s economy worse, whereas only 33% believe their policies have made it better. Additionally, more than half (60%) of NPAs, more than half (56%) of Hispanics, and more than half (54%) of older voters believe the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies have had a negative impact on America’s economy.

Florida Continues to Head in the Right Direction, While the United States is Overwhelmingly Seen as Being on the Wrong Track

Florida voters believe Florida is headed in the right direction by a 53%-39% margin, showing significantly more optimism about Florida’s trajectory than that of the nation. By a 2-to-1 margin of 64%-28%, Floridians believe the United States is currently on the wrong track.

Republicans Continue to Dominate Voter Registration in Florida

Republicans continued to expand their registration lead over Democrats since the last publicly released Florida Chamber poll in August. The Republican voter registration lead across Florida eclipsed 1 million voters at the end of July, a mark that continues to grow. This lead comes even though Democrats held an outright voter registration advantage as recently as October 2021.

The voter registration book closing update from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Republicans held a statewide advantage of 1,077,927 active voters over Democrats. As of October 7, 2024, Florida had 5,499,717 registered Republicans compared to 4,421,790 registered Democrats and 4,027,661 registered  NPAs or members of minor parties. This gives Republicans a lead of more than 7% of all registered voters over Democrats in Florida.

Florida Chamber Voter Education and Recruiting Initiatives

With all 120 House seats and half of Florida Senate seats on the 2024 ballot, the Florida Chamber leads the business community’s efforts to recruit and elect better candidates through the Florida Free Enterprise Fund, Florida Chamber Political Institute, and the Florida Institute for Political Leadership. For more information about these initiatives, contact the Florida Chamber’s Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations, Frank Walker, at fwalker@flchamber.com. 

ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on October 10-20, 2024, by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 222 Democrats, 267 Republicans and 125 others for a total of 614 respondents statewide.